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Global cannabis sales to hit $58 billion in 4 years

Plus, will President Biden mention cannabis tonight?

Good morning.

President Biden is set to give the State of the Union address tonight.

Will he mention anything related to cannabis?

We’d bet that his record on criminal justice reform — with perhaps a mention of federal cannabis pardons — will be a key theme of the speech, but he’ll stop well short of any specifics around rescheduling or de-scheduling, as we discussed on yesterday’s Cultivated Live.

- Jeremy Berke & Jay Rosenthal

💡What’s the big deal?

According to analytics firm BDSA’s forecast

Driving the news: As more jurisdictions around the world legalize cannabis, global legal sales are set to hit $58 billion in just four years, according to a new forecast from analytics firm BDSA.

It’s still a drop in the bucket compared to the global beer or liquor markets, but a near $60 billion industry is something that many countries around the world are going to have to reckon with. 

The details: BDSA expects legal cannabis sales to grow at a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), a measure of the average rate of growth, from about $36 billion today. 

BDSA expects much of that growth to come from the US, which accounts for about 56% of total global cannabis sales. 

What’s next: Forecasting cannabis sales is quite difficult, given competition — and the lack of rigorous data collection — around illicit sales, which still comprise the bulk of the market.

But still, it’s a rapidly growing market: The global beer industry is only expected to grow at around 4.2% CAGR, according to Statista

And more: Cannabis sales are materially eating away at the beer industry’s profits, according to research


💬 Quotable

“Marijuana is less addictive than alcohol, and alcohol isn’t even on the schedule,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren said in a video posted on X yesterday

In January, Sen. Warren and twelve other Democratic Senators — including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumerwrote a letter to the Drug Enforcement Administration pushing for the agency to remove cannabis from the list of federally controlled substances completely. She’s continuing to push that message. 

👊 Quick hits

In other political news, Rep. Barbara Lee — who has been a vocal proponent of cannabis legalization — lost her bid for the open Senate seat in California. But Rep. Adam Schiff, the Democratic nominee, has voted in the past to federally decriminalize cannabis. 

And stop us if you’ve heard this before: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the SAFER Banking Act, a bill that would let cannabis companies access the banking system, is a priority to pass before November’s election. 

A bill to legalize cannabis in Hawaii is heading to the state’s House of Representatives. If passed, Governor Josh Green has already signaled his support. 

Las Vegas-based cannabis firm Planet 13 Holdings is set to raise around $11.3 million through a sale of 18.75 million shares at 60 cents per. 

Missouri is opening up a second round of licensing applications for cannabis microbusinesses.

Raids against illegal cannabis shops are ramping up in New York City: Yesterday, two Queens stores were shuttered by the city’s cannabis enforcement task force

An Oakland police officer, 36-year-old Tuan Le, was shot and killed after responding to a burglary at a cannabis shop. It was the second burglary attempt at the shop in less than four hours, CBS News reports

🎒 What we’re reading

📈 Earnings round-up

Cannabis firm Curaleaf reported its full-year and fourth quarter results after market close yesterday. The company reported a $57.7 million net loss on $345 million of revenue for the fourth-quarter. For the full year, the company reported a $281.2 million net loss on $1.46 billion revenue. The stock closed down about 7%. 

MariMed also posted its results yesterday. The company reported a $10.1 million net loss (per GAAP standards) on $38.9 million revenue for the fourth quarter. For the full year, the company reported a $16 million net loss on $148.6 million revenue. The stock closed down about 7%, too.

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