Good morning.
Eight years after legalization, Canadians smoke about as much cannabis as they used to. They just care about it less. That’s the Thought Bubble today, and it’s both a good sign that legalization is working — and a warning for investors.
Let’s get to it.
-JB, JR
Today’s newsletter is words or about a -minute read.
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Thought bubble
As pro- and anti-cannabis groups argue about the positives and negatives of legalization, we often forget that we have a real-world test case: Canada, where cannabis has been sold legally for over eight years.
Anti-cannabis groups warn of surging demand and legions of stoned zombies. The data says otherwise. Researchers at McMaster University tracked about 1,100 Canadian adults who use cannabis for six years after legalization. They expected demand to rise, but found people used cannabis just as often but valued it less, spent less on it, and got more price sensitive, according to research published in the journal Drug and Alcohol Dependence.
In other words, cannabis became a normal product, like beer or tomato sauce. It went from something people chased, and sometimes built their personalities around, to something they buy when it’s cheap and convenient.
That’s good news for public health. It’s harder news for an industry and its investors, who were sold on a premium, aspirational product and are instead selling a commodity.
-JB
Quotable
“People don’t buy illegally because they want to break the law. They buy because it’s easy,” Mike Dunn, the owner and founder of 1992 cannabis, a dispensary in Toronto told Global News. Dunn and other Ontario cannabis businesses are calling for greater enforcement of illicit cannabis sales.
Premier Doug Ford announced a suite of strengthened enforcement measures against illicit cannabis sales on Monday. Estimates show 30% of the province’s cannabis sales still come via the illicit market.
Quick hits
Iowa Democrat pitches recreational cannabis to help plug $1.4 billion budget hole
Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for Iowa governor, who leads Republican Zach Lahn by about six points a week out from Election Day, laid out a plan to legalize recreational cannabis under the state’s Alcoholic Beverages Division and repeal the 2024 law restricting hemp THC products. The campaign estimates about 7,000 jobs from the plan, which prioritizes grow licenses for small family farms and caps products at 10mg of THC per serving and 100mg per package.
Hemp THC drink ban could wipe out a fifth of some retailers’ revenue
The federal 0.4mg THC cap taking effect in December could wipe out a fifth of revenue for some drinks retailers, according to the Wine and Spirits Wholesalers of America, reports the FT. That has distributors pushing to fold THC drinks into alcohol’s three-tier system, while beer and spirits trade groups lobby to pull them from shelves entirely.
New Mexico tracking system switch led to blackout, layoffs
Matt Kennicott, executive director of the Cannabis Association of New Mexico, told lawmakers the state’s September switch from BioTrack to its own free New Mexico Seed to Sale system left growers and manufacturers unable to make sales for several days, with one business laying off 11 workers. The Regulation and Licensing Department declined to comment, citing ongoing litigation.
One fun thing
The Broken Lizard comedy crew, behind stoner classics like Super Troopers, dropped an ad opposing Massachusetts’ Question 8 ballot measure which would repeal cannabis sales in the state. They directly called out the campaign supporting the measure as confusing and misleading.
While Question 8 is polling like it will lose, every vote counts as Mass residents head to the polls next Tuesday:
Deals, launches, partnerships
Alberta regulator rejects Curaleaf bid to halt Aurora share sales
The Alberta Securities Commission dismissed Curaleaf’s application to stop Canadian cannabis company Aurora from selling stock through its at-the-market program, which Curaleaf argued was diluting Aurora holders at prices below its hostile offer. Aurora says the program was announced in February, more than six months before Curaleaf’s bid, and its board still unanimously recommends shareholders reject the revised offer. $ACB ( ▲ 0.52% ) $CURLF ( ▲ 1.52% )
Safe Harbor shareholders would keep 15% in proposed reverse merger
Cannabis fintech Safe Harbor signed a non-binding term sheet to merge with Beverly Hills creator-economy holding company Opifex Media, which would own 85% of the combined company and name its officers and four of its five directors. The deal is designed to keep Safe Harbor on Nasdaq, where it has until April 19, 2027, to get back above the $1 minimum bid price, and its cannabis banking business would keep running under the new parent. $SHFS ( ▼ 29.0% )
Science & research
Canada’s legalization cut youth cannabis crimes by more than half, study finds
Police-reported cannabis offenses among Canadians aged 12 to 17 fell by about 16 incidents a day after the Cannabis Act took effect in 2018, a drop of 53% for boys and 62% for girls that held through 2021, according to a study in Drug and Alcohol Dependence. Researchers found no link between legalization and youth property or violent crime.
What we’re reading
Editorial: Question 8 takes wrong approach to weed problems | Boston Herald
D.C. Dispensary Consumption Spaces Are Rising Social Hubs | The Washington Sun






