Good morning.
Today at Noon Eastern, we’re presenting the next in our webinar series focused on the New York market. It’s all made possible by our friends at Lit Alerts and today topic is: Metrc is here. Now what? Making track-and-trace work for your New York cannabis business. Register »
Let’s get to it.
-JB, JR
Today’s newsletter is 891 words or about a 7.5-minute read.
Today’s newsletter made possible by:
CULTIVATED CALENDAR
TODAY » Webinar → Metrc is here. Now what? Making track-and-trace work for your New York cannabis business
October 22 » The Highrise → Check out the second in our NYC series and apply to attend. Event details coming!
November 12 » Pot Policy and Politics → The second installation of the Midwest Cannabis Forum, this time in St. Louis. Ticket discounts through October 12.
COMING EVENTS → Las Vegas & Buffalo
Stay tuned for more Fall 2026 events coming soon!
Thought bubble
Every legal state makes policy choices when it builds a cannabis market. Shrinking the illicit market is generally one goal among many.
But that context is missing from a big Las Vegas Review-Journal story this week reporting on violence associated with illicit cannabis sales in the state.
"One of the basic arguments made by legalization activists wasn't true, which is if you legalize, the black market would shrink," Stanford professor Keith Humphreys, who researches drug policy, said. His evidence was California.
Nevada made choices like banning dispensaries from the Strip. But even so, a state-commissioned analysis put illicit sales at a quarter to a third of the market. Before 2017, the illicit market served, well, 100% of the market.
In other words, the illicit market lost at least two-thirds of its market share in just a few years. That’s a better metric to measure success on. A smaller share can still mean a bigger market if overall demand grows, but that is a separate claim.
Canada shows what federal legality adds. Legal stores captured as much as 84% of purchases in 2023.
So on market share, the better test, Nevada passed.
-JB
Quotable
Curaleaf’s on the offensive….
“Since we announced our bid for $ACB, $CURA is up 26% as of last night’s close, making our bid premium 73% - unheard of in Canadian M&A!” Curaleaf CEO Boris Jordan said on X. “Yet still no engagement from $ACB management.”
$ACB shareholders - we urge you to contact $ACB management and their advisors to get them to the table so they can’t block you from realizing this premium.
Since they're not responding to us, maybe they'll respond to you?!?”
He added a link to the company’s site. Yesterday, Aurora posted a video of CEO Miguel Martin discussing why shareholders should reject the deal.
Quick hits
Thailand cabinet backs bill forcing dispensaries to go medical by 2028
Thailand's cabinet approved a draft bill that would require growers to register every plantation, raise penalties, and let dispensary licenses expire in stages through 2028 unless shops become licensed medical facilities with qualified practitioners on site. It speeds up the country's retreat from the 2022 decriminalization Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul championed, but the bill still has to clear parliament.
Ohio hemp businesses say SB 56 enforcement favors dispensaries
Hemp operators argue the state is using Senate Bill 56 to crack down on them while licensed dispensaries sell higher-potency THC products under the 2023 voter-approved Issue 2. The Division of Cannabis Control says Issue 2 never legalized intoxicating hemp, so its authority stops at licensed cannabis.
Worcester Chamber flips to oppose Massachusetts cannabis repeal
The Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce, which opposed legalization in 2016, endorsed the No on 8 campaign against this year's repeal question, joining fellow 2016 opponent the Retailers Association of Massachusetts, which gave the campaign $100,000 in July. "With the way it's been implemented in Worcester in particular, we were wrong," said Chamber President and CEO Tim Murray.
Cannabis Insights
LIT ALERTS
New York's cannabis green rush is officially over — and the data proves it
The wild era of New York cannabis retail is over.
New data from Lit Alerts reveals the brutal truth: flagship dispensaries that were pulling in $1.76 million per month in February are now making $918,000 — a 48% collapse in just seven months.
This isn't market decline. It's market maturation.
As the Office of Cannabis Management approved more licenses, geographic density exploded. Consumers stopped traveling 45 minutes to a Decile 1 megastore and started shopping at the convenient Decile 5 store around the corner.
The result?
The top 80% of the market is shrinking while the bottom 20% barely holds ground. For brands, the days of hitting state targets with five flagship stores are over. For retailers, organic growth is dead — you must steal share through experience and loyalty now.
Those operating with data-driven precision will survive.
Cultivated Live
Yesterday, Kim Sanchez Rael, CEO of Azuca, joined Jay on Cultivated Live to share details of their white paper: Beyond Nano.
People moves
The Humboldt County Growers Alliance (HCGA) is hiring an executive director. Check out the job listing »
What we’re reading
How an Addictive Gas Station Drug Found Allies in Trump’s Cabinet | New York Times
Question 8 “a doomsday scenario,” say cannabis business owners | Cambridge Day