The post-midterms cannabis map

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The Democrats obliterated the Republicans in Tuesday’s vote, and the cannabis map has been reshaped. Here's the state of play as I see it:

Federal: Democratic control of the House and Senate will breathe new life into federal cannabis reform bills. But though Dems gained a lot of seats in the Senate, the filibuster could still be a problem for broad legalization bills.

There's less daylight between Congressional Democrats and President Trump on cannabis than perhaps any other issue. Trump isn't pro-legalization, but he pushed rescheduling and has said he’s open to working with Democrats. This is an issue where they could actually work together.

“I agree with the president on the need to legalize marijuana and reform this broken criminal justice system,” Senator-elect James Talarico told Fox News, when asked about where he could work with Trump. 

Pennsylvania: Democrats nailed the trifecta in Pennsylvania. 

Cannabis legalization has been a priority for the wildly popular Gov. Josh Shapiro, and now he has the mandate to do it. It’s a huge market, and long awaited by both the industry and consumers. Democrats have previously introduced legalization bills, which have been blocked by Republicans.

Penn State political scientist Daniel J. Mallinson says it's likely Pennsylvania will be among the next states to legalize. 

Texas: The architect of the THC bans in Texas, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, said on the campaign trail that he’s not going to legalize marijuana, and that if people want to vote him out over that, they should.

Well, they did. State Rep. Vikki Goodwin won the race for the  very influential position in Texas politics. She told us in an interview that she would regulate THC like alcohol, and her office has broad power over what legislation gets introduced into the state capitol.

And incoming Texas attorney general Nathan Johnson introduced legislation to decriminalize cannabis and regulate hemp-derived THC. 

The math is more difficult in Texas to get comprehensive cannabis reform passed. But it's certainly possible the hemp-derived THC bans, championed by Patrick and Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate candidate, get gutted or even fully rolled back. Keep an eye.

Iowa: Incoming Gov. Rob Sand wants to legalize cannabis. Incoming Senator Josh Turek called for the legalization and taxation of cannabis sales on the campaign trail.

Wisconsin: Incoming Gov. Dave Crowley wants to legalize cannabis. Even his former opponent, Tom Tiffany, supported medical cannabis in a debate, of which Wisconsin still doesn’t have. Three neighboring states have legalized it. Another potential new market to watch. 

Massachusetts: Question 8, the ballot measure to roll back legal cannabis sales in Massachusetts, flopped terribly. 

SAM Action, the lobbying arm linked to Smart Approaches to Marijuana, spent $3.7 million for 25% of the vote. That’s probably a lesson to other donors, who now understand just how popular legal cannabis is and how hard it is to take away once consumers have it. 

In 2016, legalization passed with about 53.7% of the vote. So if anything, it got more popular after voters saw regulation working. 

The group is already spinning the loss to donors. CEO Kevin Sabet released a video saying “we won this thing a long time ago,” just by getting on the ballot. We say better luck next time. 

-JB

“This industry has no buyers. There’s no institutional investors circling. Nobody’s asking any interesting questions, nobody’s really calling,” Green Thumb Industries CEO Ben Kovler said on the company’s Wednesday earnings call. 

“What institutions need is federal certainty, clarity on scheduling and clarity on taxes. That’s the real unlock, and that’s where we’re focusing our energy with policymakers and the investment community.”

Green Thumb reported a $4.8 million net loss on $324.4 million in third-quarter revenue, as same-store sales grew 3% for the first time since the third quarter of 2024. Minnesota’s recreational market drove most of the growth, and the company said several of its medical dispensaries have received DEA registrations under Schedule III. $GTBIF ( ▼ 2.09% )